Groundwork · October 27, 2026 · Market notes
Florida cooled. Jacksonville didn’t.
This summer it got easier to rent an apartment in most of Florida’s big markets. One market went the other way, and it happens to be our home base. Here’s what the numbers say if you’re buying or building.
Fig. 1 · Change in rental competitiveness score, summer 2025 to summer 2026
What happened
USA TODAY ran the headline this morning: renting in Florida’s large markets got less competitive, except in one. The numbers behind it come from RentCafe’s peak-season report, which scores 139 U.S. markets on how hard it is to find and land an apartment.
Miami is still the second-toughest place to rent in the country. But it lost the top spot to Chicago after its score slipped from 92.2 to 89.8. About 16 people now compete for each open unit, down from 19 a year ago. Orlando fell the furthest of any large market, sliding from 12th to 34th after years of new buildings opening. Tampa looks similar, with nine renters per opening and units taking 43 days to lease.
Jacksonville is the outlier. Its score rose 3.7 points to 76.5, putting it 25th nationally. Only 0.24% of its apartment stock is newly built, about half the national share, and roughly 65% of renters are choosing to stay put.
| Market | Score | Change vs 2025 | Renters per opening | Days to lease | Occupied | Renewal rate | New units, share of stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 89.8 | −2.4 | 16 | 36 | 96.0% | 70.0% | 0.12% |
| Broward County | 80.8 | — | 13 | 40 | 95.0% | 67.7% | 0.57% |
| Jacksonville | 76.5 | +3.7 | 9 | 42 | 92.5% | 64.9% | 0.24% |
| Orlando | below 75 | −6.3 | 9 | 42 | — | ~70% | 0.78% |
| Tampa | — | — | 9 | 43 | — | — | 0.88% |
| U.S. average | 73.9 | −0.7 | 9 | 42 | 92.9% | 62.8% | 0.50% |
Large markets only. A dash means the figure wasn’t published. Orlando ranks 34th, below the 30th-place cutoff of 75.0.
Read the score before you trust it
A rising score sounds like rising demand. It isn’t always. RentCafe builds the index from five inputs, and how they’re weighted matters for what the headline actually means.
Fig. 2 · What goes into the competitiveness score
Now look at Jacksonville line by line. Occupancy is 92.5%, a touch below the national average. Nine renters per opening is exactly the national number. Units take 42 days to lease, also the national number. What’s different is that renters are staying longer and almost nothing new is opening.
So our read is that Jacksonville got tighter mostly because the pipeline dried up, not because a wave of new renters showed up. That’s still a good setup for an owner. It’s a different setup than the headline suggests, and it can change fast once cranes come back.
Fig. 3 · Renters competing for each open apartment
Fig. 4 · Newly built apartments as a share of all rentals
Fig. 5 · Southwest Florida rents, change over the past year
For investors
Opportunities
Buy where it’s soft, not where it’s hot. Orlando, Tampa and Southwest Florida are where merchant builders are leasing up against each other and handing out concessions. That’s where a patient buyer gets a better basis. The supply that’s hurting them today is mostly already built, and the new-build share nationally fell from 0.8% to 0.5% of stock in a year.
Follow the empty pipeline. Palm Beach County and Port St. Lucie scored 82.1 with zero new units delivered. Small markets with no cranes and steady demand are the quiet version of Miami.
Value the renewal. Miami renters stay put 70% of the time and Jacksonville’s are close to 65%, both above the 62.8% national rate. Sticky tenants mean lower turnover cost, which rarely gets enough credit in a pro forma.
Pitfalls
Underwriting last year’s rent growth. Fort Myers rents are down almost 5%. If a seller’s model still shows 3–4% bumps in a market like that, the deal is priced on a market that no longer exists.
Treating a score like demand. As shown above, Jacksonville’s jump is mostly a supply story. Buy it for that reason, with eyes open, not because a headline called it hot.
Forgetting what the index leaves out. The score says nothing about insurance, property taxes, storm exposure or what you’ll pay to borrow. In Florida those line items can swallow a good rent story. Underwrite them first.
Paying a top-of-market price at the turn. Miami is still tight, but it’s loosening at the margin. Entry pricing hasn’t always caught up to that.
For developers
Opportunities
Deliver into the gap. Projects starting now open into a market where very little else was started. The thin pipeline of 2026 becomes the leasing advantage of 2028.
Small infill in supply-starved neighborhoods. Jacksonville’s 0.24% new-build share leaves room for missing-middle and small-lot projects that don’t need a 300-unit lease-up to work.
Build faster to hit the window. Modular and factory-built methods shorten the time between permit and rent roll. When timing is the edge, speed is worth paying for.
Attainable and workforce product. The renters who are renewing are the ones who can’t easily trade up. Product built for them has the deepest demand and the least competition.
Pitfalls
Everyone reads the same report. Orlando was 12th a year ago. A few years of heavy deliveries dropped it to 34th. If every sponsor chases the same thin-pipeline market, the gap closes before your building does.
Longer lease-ups cost real money. Orlando units now take 42 days to fill, up from 36. Every extra week is carry cost on a construction loan.
Concessions in your comps. Free months show up in effective rents, not asking rents. Make sure the comps you underwrite to are net of them.
Where we stand
We’re based in Jacksonville and have two infill projects in our Lab here, aiming to break ground in 2027. So read our take on Jacksonville knowing we have skin in it. We like the setup for small, patient, well-located infill. We would be careful about large projects that assume today’s thin pipeline lasts forever.
What we’re watching next quarter
- Jacksonville supplyDoes the new-build share stay near 0.24%, or do permits start catching up?
- Orlando lease-upWhether days to lease stop stretching past 42. That’s the first sign the glut is clearing.
- Miami renewalsRenewals slipped about two points. Another drop would mean renters are finding real alternatives.
- Southwest Florida rentsThe bottom is where buyers with cash get the best entry.
- National new supplyAt 0.5% of stock, it sets up a 2027–2028 squeeze if demand holds.
If you’re looking at a Florida deal and want a second set of eyes on the underwriting, send it over. And if you have an overlooked site in Jacksonville, we’d like to walk it with you.
Sources
- RentCafe, “Move over, Miami: Chicago is America’s hottest rental market this peak season,” October 8, 2026. Yardi data on market-rate properties of 50+ units, April–June 2026. rentcafe.com
- USA TODAY, “Renting in Florida’s large markets got less competitive, except in one,” October 27, 2026. usatoday.com
- Islander News, “Is Miami’s rental market getting less competitive?” October 23, 2026 (Orlando and Tampa figures). islandernews.com
- Southwest Florida rents from RentCafe city market pages, mid-2026, as compiled by True Patriot Property Management. truepatriotpropertymanagement.com